全文获取类型
收费全文 | 859篇 |
免费 | 202篇 |
国内免费 | 334篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 8篇 |
大气科学 | 604篇 |
地球物理 | 156篇 |
地质学 | 206篇 |
海洋学 | 143篇 |
天文学 | 21篇 |
综合类 | 36篇 |
自然地理 | 221篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 2篇 |
2023年 | 25篇 |
2022年 | 46篇 |
2021年 | 50篇 |
2020年 | 50篇 |
2019年 | 51篇 |
2018年 | 42篇 |
2017年 | 42篇 |
2016年 | 55篇 |
2015年 | 42篇 |
2014年 | 57篇 |
2013年 | 75篇 |
2012年 | 70篇 |
2011年 | 85篇 |
2010年 | 70篇 |
2009年 | 94篇 |
2008年 | 82篇 |
2007年 | 88篇 |
2006年 | 54篇 |
2005年 | 55篇 |
2004年 | 48篇 |
2003年 | 34篇 |
2002年 | 17篇 |
2001年 | 21篇 |
2000年 | 18篇 |
1999年 | 13篇 |
1998年 | 15篇 |
1997年 | 16篇 |
1996年 | 17篇 |
1995年 | 14篇 |
1994年 | 14篇 |
1993年 | 8篇 |
1992年 | 7篇 |
1991年 | 9篇 |
1990年 | 4篇 |
1989年 | 1篇 |
1988年 | 1篇 |
1986年 | 1篇 |
1985年 | 1篇 |
1954年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有1395条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
121.
Progresses in the research for season division and seasonal changes are reviewed systematically in this paper,which particularly introduces the results of a national natural science foundation project,"the nonlinear identification of seasonal changes and its responses to global warming".The project developed two objective and quantitative methods for season division:the non-linear similarity measure(NSM) method and the regional multi-element optimal dissection(RMOD) method,which differ from traditional ones for season division.Besides,the project further investigated seasonal changes and their responses to global warming,analyzed evolution characteristics of the starting date and length of seasons in history,revealed their relationships with extreme events and precipitation patterns in rainy seasons,and thereby built a research system for seasonal changes in China under the global warming background.Finally,the authors make an outlook on the research for season division and seasonal changes and put forward several issues associated with season and climate changes that need to be further explored. 相似文献
122.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAGES IN CHINA UNDER GLOBAL WARMING 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Over the past 25 years, an annual average of 6 to 7 tropical cyclones (TCs) made landfall on China mainland and Hainan Island with an average intensity of 29.9 m/s at landfall and maintained at least tropical storm intensity for 15.6 hours over land, leading to 505 deaths and 37 billion yuan in direct economic loss, which accounted for 0.4% of the annual GDP of China. Although there was little change in the overall landfall frequency, intensity at landfall and overland duration, the annual total direct economic loss increased significantly due to the rapid economic development over the past 25 years. Under global warming, the intensity of TCs that made landfall on Hainan decreased but the overland duration and frequency of TCs that made landfall on Fujian and Zhejiang increased. At the national and provincial levels, the ratio of the direct economic loss to GDP and casualties caused by landfall tropical cyclones decreased, suggesting the effectiveness of disaster prevention and reduction in China. 相似文献
123.
Northward propagation in summer and eastward propagation in winter are two distinguished features of tropical intraseasonal oscillation(TISO) over the equatorial Indian Ocean.According to numerical modeling results,under a global warming scenario,both propagations were intensified.The enhanced northward propagation in summer can be attributed to the enhanced atmosphere-ocean interaction and the strengthened mean southerly wind;and the intensified eastward propagation in winter is associated with the enhanced convection-wind coupling process and the strengthened equatorial Kevin wave.Future changes of TISO propagations need to be explored in more climate models. 相似文献
124.
Observational analyses have demonstrated that the Hadley circulation has expanded poleward in recent decades. Important issues are what caused the widening of the Hadley circulation and whether the observed widening is related to anthropogenic forcing. In the present study, we use currently available simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) to analyze changes in the width of the Hadley circulation. It is found that CMIP5 historical simulations with greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing generate a total widening of ~0.15o0.06o in latitude (10 yr)-1 for the period 1979--2005, and the widening in CMIP5 historical simulations with all forcings is ~0.17o0.06o per decade. Similar to that in CMIP3, the simulated poleward expansion in CMIP5 is much weaker than the observational reanalyses. In CMIP5 projection simulations for the 21st century, magnitudes of widening of the Hadley circulation increase with radiative forcing. For the extreme projected radiative forcing of RCP8.5, the total annual-mean widening of the Hadley circulation is ~0.27o0.04o(10 yr)-1 in the 21st century. Although CMIP5 underestimates observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, the results of this study suggest that the observed trends in the width of the Hadley circulation are caused by anthropogenic forcing and that increasing GHGs play an important role in the observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, in addition to other forcings emphasized in previous studies. 相似文献
125.
Abstract A central issue in tackling climate change is to understand to what extent different short-term mitigation strategies are consistent with long-term stabilization targets. The present article aims at cross-comparing emission paths derived by plausible short-term policies against those implied by long-term climate targets, comparing, for example, differences in peak periods. Short-term policies considered are, for instance, Kyoto-type targets with or without participation by the USA and/or by developing countries. Long-term targets focus instead on stabilization of CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing and the increase in atmospheric temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. In order to account for the uncertainty surrounding the climate cycle, for each long-term goal multiple paths of emission—the most probable, the optimistic and the pessimistic projections—are considered in the comparison exercise. Comparative analysis is performed using the FEEM-RICE model, a regional economy—climate model. The results suggest that some early policy action should take place for short-term emissions to be compatible with long-term targets. In particular, the Kyoto-type regimes appear to be on a compatible emission path, at least up to the second commitment period. However, this is no longer the case when assuming a pessimistic realization of the uncertain climate parameters. 相似文献
126.
Jacek?MajorowiczEmail author Jan??afanda Rajmund?Przybylak Gabriel?Wójcik 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(2):351-363
Ground Surface Temperature (GST) history in Poland was derived from the inversion of temperature-depth profiles in over 20 wells. Temperature histories for the period 1500 A.D. through 1977 A.D. agree well with the instrumental record of the surface-air temperature available for the last two centuries. A statistical correlation of the reconstructed histories (from the well temperature data) with the instrumental record (air temperature) from the homogeneous Warsaw series is high (>0.8). Functional space inversion (FSI) of the temperature data with depth shows that beginning in the early 19th century, temperatures warmed by 0.9 ± 0.1°C following a long period of colder climate before. The last number could be a minimal as higher warming was calculated using a simple model based on surface temperature for the observational period (homogenized Warsaw surface temperature series, Lorenc, 2000) and POM (pre-observational mean; Harris and Chapman, 1998) of –1.53oC below the 1951–1980 mean temperature level. 相似文献
127.
128.
近年来人们对"气候变暖"及其机制的争论达到了前所未有的程度,这可能是因为气候变化不再是单纯研究大气变化规律的科学,而变成一门与"减排方案"和"征收碳税"有关的政治与经济问题相联系,与国家经济利益有关的崭新课题."气候变暖"既与利益有关,就会难免偏离公正,偏离纯理论科学.本研究对国内外"气候变暖"最新动态进行回顾分析,得出以下认识和结论.1)过去百年城市发展,极大地影响了器测温度数据,如果没有对"热岛效应"进行矫正,无疑高估了过去百年全球升温的幅度;2)过去百年全球有所变暖是事实,但不同学者增温估算不一致.不仅升温幅度不确定,而且人类和自然因素对升温贡献各占多少也不确定;如果考虑到城市发展对增温估算的影响,过去百年增温应当比0.4℃更低,远没有达到历史上次级波动的变化范围.3)尽管过去百年地球有所变暖,但在万年轨道尺度上,现在地球处于变冷的大趋势过程中.对现在气候变暖更合理解释,是属于变冷大趋势中的次级变暖波动;4)不论过去还是现在,大气CO2浓度变化总是落后于温度变化,即总是温度驱动着CO2变化,而不是CO2浓度驱动地球增温. 相似文献
129.
极端气候事件是在一定时间尺度上发生的不同于气候系统平均状态的气候突变.早第三纪的最热事件(PETM),第四纪中国黄土高原古土壤S4、S5记录的暖湿事件,砂黄土L9、L15记录的干冷事件等都是在轨道时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件.末次冰消期的YD冷事件、全新世9次冷事件是在千—百年尺度上发生的极端气候事件.这些极端气候事件出现于地球气候系统不同的冷暖背景下,它们的成因机制和表现形式有很多不确定性.20世纪以来发生的干旱、洪水、飓风、雪灾、沙尘暴等极端气候事件,无法用持续增加的温室气体的变化来解释.关于极端气候事件发生频率和强度随"全球变暖"而增加的结论也存在一定程度的不确定性.因此,简单地将现代极端气候事件统统归因于"气候变暖"既不科学也不合理.深入研究各个时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件的波动性、周期性和不确定性特征,有助于科学预测未来气候变化背景下极端气候事件的发展趋势. 相似文献
130.
Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961–1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and
simulated results of 20 global climate models (such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47) during the same period as the observation,
we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of multi-
model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of
1991–1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period
of 2011–2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. Analyzed results show that: (1) Global climate models can reproduce
Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. (2) With the
factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the
observation. (3) Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991–1999, we can simulate the trend of temperature
increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same
weighing ensemble. (4) For the period of 2011–2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from
multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1 °C. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios
of A2, A1B and B1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8 °C; the
trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1 °C. 相似文献